January 31, 2020: There has been a lot of press over the past few weeks concerning the Wuhan Coronavirus, also known as 2019n-CoV. This is a viral infection that was discovered in the city of Wuhan, China, in early December. Since then, it has spread throughout the region surrounding Wuhan, a city of over 10 million people, as well as to various other places in China. But more ominously, it has been found in a number of other countries outside of China, including 6 confirmed cases in the United States by the end of January 2020.
Wuhan coronavirus is a respiratory virus that causes fever, cough, and breathing difficulty. As of January 31, the current estimate in China is that 200 people have died out of about 8,000 who have been identified with the infection. If these numbers are accurate, this would mean a mortality rate of 2.5%, a very high number considering that the influenza virus causes death in only 0.1% in the US. The number infected is likely to grow substantially over the next few weeks and months. Only time will tell if the mortality rate stays at its current level.
There are a lot of unknowns about this virus. The leading theory is that is came from animals in a large fish and animal market in Wuhan. This means the virus originated in animals, a common theme among viruses, especially influenza virus. At this point the Chinese government does not know exactly how many people are infected, and the numbers for death due to Wuhan virus are not confirmed, so we really don’t know how deadly it is. What we do know is that Wuhan virus has some similarities to other recent coronavirus outbreaks, including SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003 and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) which emerged in Saudi Arabia in 2012. In both cases, the mortality rate was high, much higher than those reported so far for Wuhan virus, but neither SARS nor MERS were able to spread efficiently from person to person. Largely due to that fact, both outbreaks were able to be contained, and we avoided a worldwide disaster. There has not been a case of SARS reported anywhere in the world since 2004. While MERS does continue to circulate in Saudi Arabia and some of the surrounding countries, the rest of the world has seen only occasional imported cases.
We simply don’t know yet how severe this outbreak of Wuhan virus will be. The Chinese government has quarantined large segments of China, especially the city of Wuhan, in an effort to halt its spread by people carrying it to other parts of the world. We don’t know yet how effective their efforts have been. What we do know is that influenza kills 20,000-25,000 Americans every year, but so far Wuhan virus has not killed a single American. Stay calm. The situation is changing by the day, and so far there is no reason to panic.